Survey predicts rising market for emissions credits

18 September 2002 – A survey of industry representatives likely to participate in a greenhouse gas (GHG) credit trading market reveals an expectation for credits to range from slightly more than $5 per ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent in 2005, mid-way toward the date for achieving the Kyoto Protocol’s emissions reductions targets, to $11 per ton of CO2 equivalent in 2010, when the emissions reductions are to be achieved.

At the request of Environment Canada, Natsource LLC assessed the estimated value of future credits by surveying 25 companies with operations in the U.S., Canada, Europe and Japan. The results were released in a report Assessment of Private Sector Anticipatory Response to Greenhouse Gas Market Development.

Natsource found that most companies presume Kyoto will come into force this year, and that the US will not be part of the agreement. Respondents also expressed concern about obstacles that could prevent trading markets and credit prices from becoming fully efficient.

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