Capacity additions projected to 2005

Electric capacity additions worldwide through 2005 are projected to be around 665 GW, with 58 percent of the additions in Asia, according to a new report from the Utility Data Institute (UDI) in Washington, D.C., USA. This represents a 22 percent increase from the installed base of about 3,061 GW at year-end 1995. Assuming an average installed cost of (US)$1,000 per kW, construction of this new capacity will require a worldwide investment of approximately (US)$700 billion. An additional 589 GW of power plants with service dates after 2005, or still in the planning stages, were identified.

On a regional basis, new capacity is expected to be distributed as follows: Asia, 387 GW; Russia and the CIS, 21 GW; the European Union, 62 GW; Other Europe, 13 GW; Latin America, 56 GW;

the Middle East, 41 GW; North America, 65 GW; and the rest of the world, 20 GW (Figure 1).

“The next three years look strong with 90-plus GW scheduled per year,” said Christopher Bergesen, UDI editor. “But since plans for large plants always take longer to mature than expected, we expect that the final numbers will show less capacity on line for each of these years, perhaps 70 to 80 GW. Total expected additions for the forward 10-year period have been in the range of 628 to 665 GW for the last three years.”

The breakdown by fuel for capacity additions in the coming three years is well balanced, with 31 percent coal, 24 percent gas and LNG, 22 percent hydroelectric, 10 percent nuclear and 7 percent oil. The remaining 6 percent will be distributed among other fuels (Figure 2). The report`s projections are based on information gathered from 725 utilities, 657 industrial autoproducers, 722 private power companies and 76 unidentified organizations. The report makes a total of 7,487 projected generating units, 3,851 plant sites, some with commercial service dates past 2015.