South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco are leading Africa’s windpower market, representing more than 85 per cent of the continent’s installed capacity.

And Ethiopia, Kenya and Tunisia are also set to make significant gains in the sector, as increasing demand for electricity and decreasing costs for windpower drives growth in Africa’s wind market.

Those are the conclusions of the Africa Wind Power Market Outlook, a new study from analysts at consultancy MAKE.

The study states that about 5 GW of cumulative capacity was reached at the end of last year and adds that development in Africa will result in an expected compounded annual growth rate of 19.8 per cent from 2018 to 2027.

During this period, MAKE expects approximately two thirds of capacity added in Africa to be in South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco.

“The new government in South Africa signed long-awaited PPAs in the first half of this year and announced a new bidding round in Q4/2018, both of which have helped end a period of uncertainty,” says MAKE. “In Egypt, developers are demonstrating an ability to drive down cost, which will make wind the most inexpensive source of power generation in the country upon realisation. Despite some delays in project execution, Morocco will remain on track to achieve its 5 GW wind capacity target by 2030.”

The study highlights that Ethiopia, Kenya and Tunisia have been striving to translate their ambitious windpower capacity targets into actual market development, due partly to imperfect regulatory frameworks, and predicts that developers will add nearly 5 GW of windpower capacity in these countries from 2018 to 2027.

MAKE states that many smaller markets in North-Africa, Sub-Sahara and West Africa will experience “sporadic, project-scale developments defying multifaceted challenges. Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania will be the key players in their respective sub-regions.”