The share of nuclear power in world electricity supply could shrink over the next 40 years to 6.2 per cent, half what it was in 2010, according to a recent analysis by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Department of Nuclear Energy.
Hans Holger Rogner, head of the Vienna agency’s Planning and Economic Studies Section, found that although overall installed capacity will grow, nuclear power will lose ground to other energy sources like renewables and fossil fuels. He added that this would mean increased carbon emissions and higher fossil fuel prices.
The agency’s 2011 projections show a decline of roughly 7-8 per cent compared with those published a year ago, reflecting the combined impact of Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear power by 2022 and the consequences of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant accident.
Rogner said the 2011 analysis, released in late August, sees installed nuclear generating capacity growing by between 90 GW and 350 GW by 2050.
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