Growing energy demand in the rapidly developing countries of Asia will help increase world energy use by 57% over the next 20 years, according to the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA’s new International Energy Outlook 2005 projects a doubling of energy use in the emerging economies of China and India, while the US and other developed countries will experience a 27% growth in energy use. In addition, the EIA expects energy use to increase by 45% in Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union.
As a result, the EIA expects world oil use to increase to 119 million barrels per day by 2025, requiring an increase in production of 35 million barrels per day relative to today’s oil production. And, despite recent escalations in oil prices, the EIA still expects prices to decline to US$31 per barrel (in 2003 dollars) by 2010, then increase to $35 per barrel by 2025.
Grid-connected renewable energy sources are expected to no more than keep pace with energy growth, maintaining an 8% share of world energy use. And although the Kyoto Protocol is now in effect, the EIA expects global carbon dioxide emissions to increase by nearly 60% over the next 20 years.