- assessed the total global installed capacity at the end of 2004
- assessed the additions of DE projects in 2003 and 2004
- estimated the level of retirement of DE plants that existed at the end of 2002.
At the time of writing, no public domain information is available on the level of total installed electrical capacity at the end of 2004, but on the basis of hard data for 2002 and projections contained in the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2004, we have derived at the end of 2004 a total installed capacity of 3926 GWe, an increase of about 165 GWe on the equivalent 2002 figure.
To assess the level of DE project additions, WADE used both a top-down assessment and a bottom-up assessment. We gathered information from a range of sources in order to estimate the market growth during the two-year period:
- the 2002–2003 and 2003–2004 annual surveys by Diesel and Gas Turbine
- sales data collected directly from WADE member organizations involved in
the manufacture and sale of DE
- selected national market growth data from national WADE affiliates
- the Annual PV Market Update 2004, by Paul Maycock
- the World Wind Energy Association and Windpower Monthly magazine.
An analysis of DGTW surveys for the period, together with the application
of WADE assumptions to the data that enabled the extraction of CHP sales, indicated
that about 19,570 MWe of gas turbine and engine orders for cogeneration application
were made for the two-year period. (This takes into account diesel, dual-fuel
and natural gas engines, and includes those using
biomass-derived fuel and biofuels.)
Figure 1. DE market development in relation to total electrical capacity growth.
Source: WADE, 2005
In order to validate the DGTW data, it was cross-checked with data provided to WADE by its members and other companies. WADE requested sales data specifically for cogeneration applications for 2003 and 2004. The data provided by these companies covered most of the size range covered by the DGTW survey, together with orders of equipment smaller than 1 MWe, and took into account these companies’ assessments of their respective market shares. Putting all the data together, we found that the figure extracted from the DGTW data corresponded well with the sales data. Both reflected a distinct increase in sales from previous years.
The international Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) is supporting a proposal to speed up the development of biomass-fuelled cogen projects in Africa
The international Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) is supporting a proposal to speed up the development of biomass-fuelled cogen projects in Africa by promoting awareness among policymakers, investors and stakeholders and by removing barriers (political and policy, regulatory, licensing and financial) to the development of cogeneration. The proposal is to target the industrial sector currently producing biomass waste with a view to improving their alternative income streams while generating low-carbon electricity.
Renewable energy sources abound in sub-Saharan Africa, and a 10% target for the renewable contribution within the East African countries is considered achievable, and indeed has already been met in Kenya using geothermal energy alone, says REEEP. However, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania all suffer power shortfalls and an energy mix which depends heavily either on single sources or on thermal energy, or both.
The use of biomass in cogeneration would take renewable generation beyond the 10% target, and would also create jobs and generate national savings on petroleum imports for the three countries. Vitally, all three have ample stocks of bagasse and wood wastes that could be used for medium- to large-scale cogeneration, says REEEP. Initially, the project will focus on Kenya and, should it prove successful, will then be rolled out across the region to take in Tanzania and Uganda.