The Fraunhofer Institute, in cooperation with the German weather service, has designed a new model for forecasting the generation of renewable electricity.

To combat the intermittent nature of renewables, the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES), in cooperation with Germany‘s National Meteorological Service in Offenbach, have developed the model and launched a new platform for transmission system operators to test them live.
The models provide improved forecasts, accurate up to each quarter-hour, showing how much electricity Germany’s installed solar PV and wind facilities will generate over the next few hours, or days.

EnergyForecaster helps system operators calculate precisely how much wind and solar is being fed into the grid, and into which grid nodes it is being fed. The new system also provides information on the reliability of the forecasts.

 Dr. Malte Siefert of IWES, and project manager of the EWeLiNE project told Clean Technica, “It’s important to forecast how much renewable power will be generated, because that tells us how much conventional generation capacity – whether nuclear, gas, or coal – needs to be brought online. At the same time, the forecast is necessary for calculations to keep the power grid stable and for trading electricity.”

“The transmission system operators also have to be aware of any critical weather conditions – for example, patches of low stratus or low-pressure zones – so they can better analyze and estimate the forecast results,” explained Siefert.

System operators aren’t the only one planning to modify how they forecast better, with Germany’s Meteorological Service also planning to adapt its forecasts to meet the needs of power forecasting.