Electricity generation is set to climb steadily up to 2030, with coal remaining the dominant fuel source, finds Frost & Sullivan’s Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2011.
China and India are expected to play a key role in both trends. Their share of global electricity demand is forecast to hit 34.5 per cent in 2030, up from 23.6 per cent in 2010. Their share of global coal fired generation is predicted to soar from 43.8 per cent in 2010 to 57 per cent by 2030.
Coal will make up nearly 28 per cent of global installed capacity and more than 34 per cent of electricity generation in 2030, find Frost & Sullivan.
But all fuel sources except oil are projected to expand.
“China and India are both expected to see strong growth in renewable energy and nuclear power as they aim to diversify away from fossil fired generation,” said Frost & Sullivan’s industry director for power generation, Harald Thaler.
“The highest non-fossil electricity generation growth, however, will be in the Middle East and North Africa, where solar power developments, in particular, will receive increased attention.”
Global electricity generation will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7 per cent from 2010 until 2020, driven by urbanisation and a rapidly growing middle class in the developing world, finds the report.
But the rate of growth will ease to 1.8 per cent from 2020 to 2030 as emerging markets expand more slowly and energy-efficiency measures begin to have a greater effect.
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