In the new BP Energy Outlook 2030, released on 16 January, renewables growth outpaces new conventional capacity but fossil fuels still provide the backbone of generation in 2030.

While renewables are set to increase their share in generation from 4 per cent up to 11 per cent, fossil fuels continue to dominate as emerging economies drive a 36 per cent rise in energy demand.

BP Outlook 2030

BP’s (LSE:BP) analysis also hightlights how unconventional gas and oil sources – such as shale gas and tight oil – will transform energy markets.

Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of about 26-28 per cent each by 2030, with non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydro and renewables – on a share of about 6-7 per cent each, according to the new Outlook.

Gas is expected to grow fastest among fossil fuels, with non-OECD countries supplying 76 per cent of the increase in demand, running at 2 per cent a year.

Coal expands by only 1.2 per cent a year to 2030, with 93 per cent of net growth from China and India. Oil edges up at an annual average of only 0.8 per cent.

BP expects unconventional sources of gas and oil to redraw global energy markets. Shale gas is forecast to meet 37 per cent of growth in gas demand, accounting for 16% of global supply in 2030.

Nuclear also picks up, growing by 2.6 per cent a year, with China, India and Russia together accounting for 88 per cent of new capacity.

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