Primary energy use will grow by nearly 40 per cent over the next 20 years, with 93 per cent coming from non-OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries.
That’s one of the key findings from a projection of energy trends carried out by global energy giant BP.
The BP Energy Outlook is the first time the company has published a forward-looking analysis – traditionally it has published historical data.
Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds – a view shared in the International Energy Agency’s global outlook published last year.
According to BP’s figures, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydro and renewables – are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables – solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels – is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%.
BP chief executive Bob Dudley said that the results of the survey were in line with the desire of producers, governments and consumers, but he added that this was “an aspiration, and to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way – without inhibiting economic development or jeopardising the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide”.