Africa is set to become increasingly influential in shaping global energy trends over the next two decades as it undergoes the largest process of urbanisation the world has ever seen, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
Africa Energy Outlook 2019 finds that current policy and investment plans in African countries are not enough to meet the energy needs of the continent’s young and rapidly growing population. Today, 600 million people in Africa do not have access to electricity and 900 million lack access to clean cooking facilities.
The number of people living in Africa’s cities is expected to expand by 600 million over the next two decades, much higher than the increase experienced by China’s cities during the country’s 20-year economic and energy boom.
Africa’s overall population is set to exceed 2 billion before 2040, accounting for half of the global increase over that period. These profound changes will drive the continent’s economic growth, infrastructure development and, in turn, energy demand, which is projected to rise 60 per cent to around 1,320 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2040, based on current policies and plans.
The new report is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent.
Key report findings
Current plans would leave 530 million people on the continent still without access to electricity in 2030. But with the right policies, it could reach that target while also becoming the first continent to develop its economy mainly through the use of modern energy sources.
“Africa has a unique opportunity to pursue a much less carbon-intensive development path than many other parts of the world,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “To achieve this, it has to take advantage of the huge potential that solar, wind, hydropower, natural gas and energy efficiency offer. For example, Africa has the richest solar resources on the planet but has so far installed only 5 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), which is less than 1 per cent of global capacity.”
If policy makers put a strong emphasis on clean energy technologies, solar PV could become the continent’s largest electricity source in terms of installed capacity by 2040.
“This comprehensive report from the IEA demonstrates the huge opportunity Africa has to leapfrog the fossil fuel industry and provide a better quality of life for everyone through clean, affordable and reliable energy. Nevertheless, there are still 600 million people living with no access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa, so there’s a lot of work still to be done. Investment in solar and Government backing is crucial to drive economic growth and sustainable development.”Alistair Gordon, CEO of Lumos (off-grid solar company) commenting on the report
Natural gas, meanwhile, is likely to correspond well with Africa’s industrial growth drive and need for flexible electricity supply.
Africa’s natural resources aren’t limited to sunshine and other energy sources. It also possesses major reserves of minerals such as cobalt and platinum that are needed in fast-growing clean energy industries.
“Africa holds the key for global energy transitions, as it is the continent with the most important ingredients for producing critical technologies,” Dr Birol said. “For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for two-thirds of global production of cobalt, a vital element in batteries, and South Africa produces 70 per cent of the world’s platinum, which is used in hydrogen fuel cells. As energy transitions accelerate, so will demand for those minerals.”
African countries are on the front line when it comes to climate change, meaning the continent’s energy infrastructure planning must be climate resilient.
“Even though Africa has produced only around 2 per cent of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions to date, its ecosystems already suffer disproportionately from the effects of a changing climate,” Dr Birol said. “They are exposed to increased risks to food, health and economic security.”
For this report, the IEA developed a new scenario that analyses how the energy sector can spur Africa’s growth ambitions while also delivering key sustainable development goals by 2030. The Africa Case is based on Agenda 2063, African leaders’ own strategic framework for the continent’s economic and industrial development.
Economic growth in the Africa Case is significantly stronger over the next two decades than in the scenario based on today’s stated policies, but energy demand is lower. This is linked to an accelerated move away from the use of solid biomass (such as wood) as a fuel and to the wide application of energy efficiency policies.
Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is an excerpt from the IEA’s flagship report World Energy Outlook 2019, which will be published in full on 13 November.