Bloomberg Energy Finance (BNEF) has revealed its latest figures on projected renewables growth for Europe at the POWER-GEN Europe conference in Cologne, Germany.
Jonas Rooze, New Energy Finance, Europe analyst told the audience at a presentation entitled ‘Navigating the power transition’ that “BNEF Renewable Energy Outlook, which is due to be published soon, forecasts a growth of 600 GW in renewable energy by 2030 on top of the 1000 GW capacity currently existing in Europe.”
Rooze added the analysis forecasts that EUR80-100bn in additional investment is set for the sector per year.
Although his presentation was focused on renewables, the analyst referred to the plight of fossil fuel-powered generation in the continent in recent years, saying “The depressed situation we see in wholesale power prices is not expected to change for quite some time, which includes gas-fired power generation. Not unless there is a fundamental fixing of the ETS.”
Recently, “the picture had not been much better for renewables in Europe.”
Rooze told the audience that after reaching EUR120bn in investment in 2011, governmental policy on subsidies had changed and so investment levels had retreated to 2006/07 investment levels.
Investment insecurity was not helped by retroactive government policies towards the sector, and the push to market integration has also had an impact as renewables are now expected to take on some of the market risk.
BNEF’s analysis also predicts a significant growth in rooftop solar over the coming decade as householders look to avoid rising energy costs
“Rooftop solar PV is going to be more attractive even if you don’t get subsidies for it. The driver for uptake is going to come from home owners rather than subsidies. If your neighbour has it, it will influence you.”
Other indicators included in the analysis include flexible capacity becoming a necessity from a technical perspective, while storage and demand response will become consumer led.
There was no place for carbon capture and storage in Bloomberg’s permutations, which will disappoint advocates of the technology who insist on it being essential in combating climate change.
“We don’t believe in it because we don’t really see enough evidence of it happening enough to be relevant to our forecast,” said Rooze. “Our forecasts don’t rely on it and we are not like the International Energy Agency in that we don’t have targets for emissions. We’re not trying to be policy advocates. We try to forecast the trends.”