China and India will lead boom in gas, nuclear and renewables says report

Emerging markets led by China and India will drive a global boom in gas for power generation, with nuclear and renewables also rising significantly, according to a new report.

However the research from Frost & Sullivan predicts that coal will “fall massively… as developed countries decommission capacity and emerging nations become more diversified in their fuel mix”.

The study, Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2012, states that in the next 20 years, the traditional developed regions will lose ground in electricity demand to emerging markets.

“Rapid urbanisation and the creation of a middle class will drive electricity consumption in these economies as a wealthier population takes up electric appliances that are considered standard in the developed world.”

Frost & Sullivan predicts the bulk of this growth will come from India, China and ASEAN, with the combined share of these three regions rising from 27.5 per cent in 2010 to 40.1 per cent in 2030. It expects the power generated by China is forecast to exceed that of North America by 2015.

While gas will be the major winner in terms of power generation, it adds that nuclear will expand strongly, with Asia driving much this growth.

Strong growth also is projected for renewables, with the wind, solar PV, CSP, biomass, geothermal and marine sectors substantially expanding their share of power generation over the next two decades.

On coal, Frost & Sullivan industry director Harald Thaler said: “The growth of coal is not far behind as emerging nations such as China and India rely strongly on this fuel. Nevertheless, growth of coal fired generation is expected to fall massively during the subsequent decade as developed countries decommission capacity and emerging nations become more diversified in their fuel mix.”

Electricity demand between 2010 and 2030 will rise fastest in India according to the report, followed by the ASEAN group of nations and then China. Conversely, the three developed regions of the EU, North America and OECD APAC will all record “relatively anaemic demand growth of 1 per cent per annum or less on average, as stagnant population increases and more efficient energy use curtail demand growth”.

Thaler said: “Given their status as rapidly developing economies and future economic superpowers, it is not surprising that the share of China and India in global electricity generation is growing across all fuel sources”.

“While both countries are very strong in hydro and wind power, it is in gas and nuclear that these nations will massively outpace developments elsewhere, albeit growing from currently very modest levels.”

The report echoes the views of speakers at POWER-GEN Asia in Bangkok last month. Peter Littlewood of Hong Kong company CLP said China would soon “master the design and manufacturing of third generation nuclear reactors”, and when that time comes it will be able to “do nuclear cheaper than anyone else in the world.”

Arun Sen, chief executive of Lanco Power International, said that Asia is “not power hungry, but power starved”. He said the rising middle classes of Asia “have risen and they have said, ‘we want power and we want it now’.”

And this, he added, meant “there has never been a better time to be a power developer in the region”. If companies “do it conservatively and do it well” he said, they would never be out of business.

In the next issue of PEi – out later this month – we publish the results of a poll of delegates at POWER-GEN Asia, which highlights the opportunities in the region both now and in the future.

Follow Power Engineering International on Twitter




Editor's Picks

EU flag

Luxembourg government working on Hinkley Point C legal objection

As promised earlier this year, the Luxembourg government intends to file a lawsuit against the European Commission decisio...
David Cameron and Werner Faymann

Nuclear chief says Austrian legal action ‘damaging to efforts to address climate change’

The Austrian government has finally filed its legal challenge against the deal that facilitates subsidies for a nuclear po...
 Schleswig-Holstein Climate Minister Robert Habeck

Federal states applying pressure on Merkel government over subsidies to nuclear

States with green party representation in Germany are calling on the German government to take action against the prospect...
Mike Baston of Euracoal

Future global power generation mix – the coal-fired power perspective

In our inaugural PEi Google Hangout, Mike Bostan, Policy Officer at Euracoal tells Power Engineering International's Diarm...
Faymann

Austrian PM confirms lawsuit against Hinkley decision ready in weeks

Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann has confirmed that his country will be registering its lawsuit against the European Com...
Latest Articles
Iraq flag

Iranian firm building $2.5bn gas-fired power plant in Iraq

Iran is in the process of building a gas-fired combined cycle power plant in Iraq’s Basra in the country’s biggest engineering services deal to date.

GE Alstom deal

Alstom opt to drive down sale price to ensure GE acquisition

Alstom is prepared to accept a sizeable hit on the sale of its power unit in a bid to ensure its acquisition by GE.


Editorial Guides

Lubrication Challenges for the Biogas Industry in 2015

The biogas industry is growing in importance as the world continues to look for alternative, clean energy sources. However...

Maximising Power Plant Efficiency

The need for power plants to operate at maximum efficiency and flexibility while cutting emissions is greater than ever be...

How to cut your OPEX

How to cut your OPEX In a constantly evolving electricity market, factors such as over capacity and low coal costs can pu...

Buyers Guide Companies

ComRent International LLC

Offers rentals, sales, and services of load banks for testing generators...

Advanced Energy

Advanced Energy is a global leader in innovative power and control techn...

ACOEM AB

ACOEM is a supplier of Fixturlaser's innovative and user-friendly equipm...

Fluid Energy Controls Inc

CCI Thermal Technologies Inc

A leader in the development and manufacturing of industrial heating and ...

Buyers Guide Products

Bore Measurement

Typical applications are full bore measure...

Fixturlaser NXA Pro

This laser alignment system features many ...

Exhaust Systems

Leader in Exhaust Bypass, Simple Cycle, Ex...

RETROFIT

Braden's retrofit strengths are divided in...

Air Filtration

Braden filtration offers a wide range of f...

Power Engineering International

Whitepapers

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New challenges and opportunities are continually appearing thanks to dramatic developments in technology...

The bottom line: engine oil impact on engine reliability

A reliable and well-maintained gas-powered engine performs consistently and continuously, which can lead to a healthier bottom line for plant operators. There is a raised awareness around the need ...

Understanding Moisture Dynamics in Power Transformers

In this webinar recording "Moisture Dynamics in Power Transformers" (held originally in September 23, 2014) you will have a chance to learn about the phenomena and its importance to your ...

How to lower your total cost of ownership on DC Control Power

In this whitepaper, we look at implementing battery management solutions and how smart battery management effectively lowers the total cost of DC Control power systems and the risk of their failure...

Latest Digital Edition

  Power
  Engineering
  International
Look Inside >
Cover
Current Issue

Article Archives for Power Engineering International Magazine